By Simone Scibelli
Context
2024 was the year of elections. Coincidentally, during the past year, 76 countries encompassing approximately four billion people around the world held a national election. Arguably the longest awaited, and the most anticipated, was that which took place on November 5th in the United States, which resulted in Donald Trump winning for a second non-consecutive time, against Biden’s Vice-President, Kamala Harris. This result was by no means a foregone conclusion. For months and until the very end of the campaign, polls could not determine a clear winner, distancing the candidates by just a few fluctuating percentage points. The difference was made in the so-called swing states (like Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania) where Trump managed to prevail by enlarging the Republican Party’s voter base, one comprising new Hispanic minorities disillusioned by the Democratic administration. In addition, the representatives of the two US legislative chambers have been renewed. In both the Senate and the House of Representatives, Republicans managed to obtain slim majorities.
American citizens, including groups typically considered core Democratic voters, have chosen to favour a more conservative vision of America – in social, economic and security terms. Trump’s legislative proposals will doubtlessly result in more restrictive policies on abortion and migration, while there will likely be increased attention towards the protection of domestic economic interests, and a rupture with the conventional approaches to trade and defence. From an economic standpoint, Trump proposes a revival of the US energy industry through deregulatory policies, tax cuts to further stimulate the American manufacturing sector, and a rise in trade tariffs. In essence, Trump’s election signalled the will of the majority of American people to avert continuity with the Biden administration, something that will be significantly more attainable for the 47th President with majority support in both chambers.
Implications
The American elections represent the confirmation of a political trend already witnessed in last summer’s European Parliament elections, in the French legislative elections, and in the elections for the German Lander assemblies. In all of the abovementioned votes, populist and right-wing nationalistic forces achieved record results (in the recently-elected European Parliament, 26% of MEPs represent far-right parties). It has been a matter of such political forces defending a purist vision of the world: populist, conservative, nationalist, protectionist, generally intolerant of diversity and non-inclined to accommodate divergent opinions, and hostile to the multilateral system which structures international relations. In a geopolitical context like the current one, in which it takes very little to trigger conflict and escalate tensions, political styles and actors like Trump could serve to provoke deep volatility internationally.
Looking at the possible implications of Trump’s presidency for the European Union, there are three main policy areas that will most likely be affected:
Security
It is well known that European defence coordination is highly dependent on NATO, a US-led multilateral institution, and consequently, it will be subjected to the choices of the future Trump administration. If President-Elect Trump keeps his electoral pledges, the United States will enforce the Defence Investment Pledge, compelling member countries to invest 2% of GDP on defence annually and thereby further burdening the budgets of EU member states. As the European Union is slowly recovering from a rise in energy prices mainly induced by Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, which resulted in inflation and a period of low economic growth due to falling productivity, a further burden on European states’ budgets could deteriorate their creditworthiness and increase interest payments for sovereign bonds. Moreover, with regard to the aforementioned conflict in Ukraine, the strength of the NATO Alliance and its deterrence power, and the crisis in the Middle East, the US policy compass could radically change. The conflict on the European continent does not seem to be a priority for the new US administration, which could significantly reduce if not completely zero its contributions to Ukraine in terms of financial aid and armaments, or it may try to quickly secure a peace agreement. Should the peace treaty attempt fail, US indifference would pose further difficulty for the European Union, as the bloc would seriously struggle to maintain the same level of commitment to Ukraine without the US effort. In addition, some member states are incurring political costs internally to support Kyiv, and, in the long run, they will likely be forced to reduce the scale of their commitment too.
Trade
In terms of international trade, Trump has made it known that he wants to usher in a new era of protectionism by increasing tariffs. This will have two main consequences for the European Union. On the one hand, exports to the US will decrease and have a negative effect on European countries that are most exposed to American demand. On the other hand, duties and tariffs will hit China harder, the main target of Trump’s trade ‘war’, which will find itself with excess production that will be poured into the European market, imposing more intense competition. The European Union will be called upon to react and defend its economic stability and single market. Following the presentation of the Report on the Future of European Competitiveness by Mario Draghi, the new European Commission has placed significant political focus on trade as part of its broader industrial strategy. Concretely, it entails ensuring secure access to critical resources, promoting exports of advanced technologies without sacrificing policies to stimulate innovation, developing resilience, and realising the European decarbonisation agenda.
Political stability
Not least, in the next four years, extreme right-wing, nationalist and populist parties (such as Brothers of Italy, Alternative for Germany and Reform UK) will have an exceptional supporter, ideologically and strategically, in the White House during the run-up to their next elections. It is reasonable to expect a further increase in polarisation, campaigns for tougher immigration laws, stronger opposition towards EU integration initiatives, and a restructuring of national political agendas that could better fit the views of our transatlantic partner. A concrete example was offered during the US presidential election campaign. Thanks to Elon Musk’s financial support and visibility via his social network X, Trump managed to find a sounding board for his speeches and his creative way of news reporting, and a powerful and controversial ally who could validate his policies.
Ultimately, the new Trump administration raises many questions about the possibility of forging a strong partnership with the European Union on many dossiers. It is possible that Trump views the EU as one of many competitors within the international chessboard, perhaps less threatening than other emerging geopolitical powers, but still not as the traditional and robust Western ally it has been for decades.
About the Author
Simone Scibelli holds a Bachelor of Science in Economics and Finance and he has recently obtained his Master of Science in Politics and Policy Analysis at Bocconi University, with a thesis analysing how populist rhetoric influences changes in voters’ preferences in Germany through the use of Large Language Models. He is particularly keen on economics, politics, international relations, literature, and languages.
European Studies Review 