By Francesco Foti
INTRODUCTION
Strained Azerbaijani-Iranian relations to the point of mutual expulsion of diplomatic personnel and the suspension of Azerbaijan’s embassy in Iran following the 2023 terrorist attack are the latest regionally destabilising manoeuvres which are paired with Russian regional designs that could further frustrate the quest for strategic security and stability of both Azerbaijan and Armenia. An anti-Iranian and anti-Russian holistic strategy should be implemented by stick and carrot, ad hoc EU-NATO involvement, and investments that lead to Armenia’s major realignment.
THE IMPASSE
Azerbaijan is subject to Western interest given the European aim at strategic diversification to emancipate the bloc from Moscow. Azerbaijan is an ally to Israel, a guarantee to the regional security strategy in terms of curbing the Iranian threat. Armenia, on the other hand, is embraced by Russia, which attempts to perpetuate the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict by exploiting the separatists in the disputed area. Iran also made it clear that it has a strategic interest in Armenia. By exploiting its fragility and the separatists in Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenia is hostage to Iran and Russia, with its forces within Nagorno-Karabakh and the country itself who aim to influence a possible long-term Western trajectory and ties.
Azerbaijan became an appealing geopolitical interlocutor to link the EU to the rich South Caucasus region. The West aims to profit from the Azeri neutrality to stabilise trade flows and establish an alternative presence to Moscow’s overtures aimed at manipulating the dispute. Despite the ties between Azerbaijan and Russia’s oligarchs, the sanctions and economic downturn could potentially weaken Russo-Azeri ties to the benefit of the counter-strategy.
HOLISTIC COUNTER STRATEGY
The diplomatic inaction of the EU, embodied by France’s one-sided approach and rhetoric, risks giving Iran the impression that it can keep opposing a set of security precautions that outsmart Moscow. For instance, Azerbaijan’s suggestion to work on the Zangezur corridor with Turkey is currently opposed by Armenia –but backed by Iran and Moscow. According to the proposal of European Council President Charles Michel, shared control of the hypothetical corridor between the two neighbours would curb Russia and Iran. Moreover, the opening of the Iranian embassy in Kapan signals how it will use this concession to increase its manipulative approach to Yerevan’s regional aspirations, its long-term integration with the West, and a durable solution to the conflict.
Iran aims at altering the regional balance, already compromised by Armenia’s disregard for UNSC resolutions calling for respecting Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity. The EU should clarify that Iranian manoeuvres will lead to sanctions and renewed support for Azerbaijan in order to avoid a Ukrainian scenario. Armenia should be persuaded through investments and involvement on the ground to recognize Azerbaijan’s sovereignty over Nagorno Karabakh, to refuse an alliance with sanctioned global pariahs, to shut down the Russian military base, and to choose alignment with Europe and NATO by upgrading. On the other hand, the middle ground between the West and Russia, as the Azeri oligarchs hoped for, is no assurance to the partners wanting to undermine Moscow’s revenues and reduce its presence in the region. A clear demonstration of commitment to territorial integrity over self-determination will be a signal to rogue states aiming to change the regional status quo by questioning territorial integrity and acting upon it to expand. Arms transfers from Iran and Russia and, allegedly, alien mercenaries on Armenia’s and Azerbaijan’s part have to be prevented by NATO allies and Israel if a genuine and long-term peace solution is to be achieved.
Iran’s expansion would open a new regional front in addition to the already festering ones within Russian enclaves in Georgia. Undermining the Russo-Iranian presence in the region, both by sanctions and the establishment of a permanent military presence in Armenia, will affect their capacity to navigate through the existing sanctions and represent a counterforce to EU opportunities there. Turkey and Israel will support ties that will isolate Russia and Iran and help capitalise on the 2020 Azerbaijani victory to speed up a regional reconfiguration. This, while not forgetting the minorities’ basic rights in Nagorno-Karabakh and avoiding the two parties’ weaponisation of the Lachin corridor. The European eye and more activism should prevent a situation that favours Iran and Russia alternatively, a humanitarian crisis and the presence of mercenaries.
CONCLUSION
The EU should increase support to both by countering Iran’s threat to Azerbaijan along Moscow’s influence in Armenia to foster strategic ties and a European and American peace solution that would end one of the most intractable security crises. Emphasis should be given to Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity, minority constitutional rights and the start of Armenia’s integration into the Western orbit. To allow Iran and Russia to affect Azerbaijan’s security and Armenian foreign policy is tantamount to allowing Moscow to direct Ukraine’s aspirations to join the EU and NATO. There is the need to discourage Iran and Russia’s designs on the International North-South Transport Corridor, thus not to compromise strategic security.
As for Armenia, the EU should be clear in its concessions towards Iran and Russia. It should not abandon the goal of undermining the sphere of influence that isolates Armenia to the detriment of the regional balance and the need for sovereignty, independence, and closer ties to Europe. The patchy and hasty deployment of the EU’s mission there without any pledge on the Armenians’ part to refrain from exploitation by Iran and Russia and, possibly, weapons smuggling is problematic in terms of conflict-solving and a sustainable peace solution.
There is a need to reach a solution by means of relevant UNSC Resolutions that acknowledge Azeri territorial integrity and the goal of isolating the two rogue states. This could be done by extricating Armenia from their overtures and strengthening the EU’s presence by extolling the benefits to modern trade cooperation and integration outside the Commonwealth of Independent States’ historic and current limits. Armenia’s long-term stability and economic prospects do not reside with an isolating frozen conflict but in opening up to a new chapter outside self-serving Iran, Russia, and its oligarchs.
Francesco has a M.A. in Security and International Relations (Westminster University). He focuses on EU-Russian relations, the post-soviet space, the path to Euro Atlantic integration/cooperation, and hybrid warfare.
European Studies Review 