By Joanna Tobjasz
Nowadays, we can see the rise of populism and Euroscepticism in many European states. Populists are known for calling themselves the “voice of the people” and for emphasising the distinction between “us” (the ordinary people, the nation, etc.) and “them” (the elites, the EU, the newcomers, etc.). In the context of the European Union, they use people’s fears and concerns to encourage Euroscepticism. This political doctrine poses a threat to the European Union, and it is not only a form of criticism directed at the EU but also a narrative tool used by populists to strengthen the “us” and “them” divide.
The case is far more interesting, especially among the so-called European founding fathers, the very states that once helped establish the first European Communities, ultimately leading to the creation of the EU in 1993. This growing success of populist and Eurosceptic movements in these countries prompts two crucial questions: why are these two movements growing in these states, and what does this mean for the European Union itself?
This is exemplified by the Netherlands, one of the six founding fathers, which has come a long way from early undoubted support for European integration to a time when Eurosceptic populism is on the rise. The past 2023 Dutch elections illustrated this shift, and the upcoming 2025 elections pose a strong question: will Eurosceptic populists win again?
Populist and hard Eurosceptic Party for Freedom
Although the Netherlands has a history of populism (the Pim Fortuyn List in 2002), the 2023 victory of the Party for Freedom (PVV, “Partij voor de Vrijheid”) marked a turning point for the country. The success of this hard Eurosceptic and populist party, led by Geert Wilders, shows a big change in the Dutch approach, as never before had a Eurosceptic and populist party won the elections and secured the most seats in the Dutch Tweede Kamer.
The 2023 PVV win can be explained by a few factors, such as growing concerns over migration, a different stance on environmental topics, Wilders’ more moderate campaign tone, the weakness of mainstream competitors, and strategic voting. Nonetheless, the key was its focus on stricter migration and asylum policies, which had become central to national debates. By presenting itself as the only party willing to take a firm stance on these issues, the PVV’s support successfully rose.
PVV’s agenda combines an anti-Islamic standpoint, nationalism, anti-migration, and Euroscepticism (even mentioning Nexit, the Dutch Brexit). For years, PVV and Wilders have encouraged an anti-EU populist rhetoric, e.g., “Hún Brussel, óns Nederland” (“Their Brussel, our Netherlands”) and the anti-migrant stance, “us” (Dutch people “Henk and Ingrid”) and “them” (newcomers “Ali en Fatima”), using it to sway public opinion against migrants, e.g., “Henk en Ingrid betalen voor Ali en Fatima” (“Henk and Ingrid pay for Ali and Fatima”) and later blaming the European Union due to common EU laws on asylum and migration. As mentioned before, migration has been a crucial topic in recent years, and since this area is a shared competence between the EU and its Member States, it often creates tensions.
But why are the populists and Eurosceptics winning?
To answer this, we need to look at the broader context among the EU’s founding fathers, since the Netherlands is not an isolated case. The success of populist and Eurosceptics can also be observed in other states, such as France (Marine Le Pen’s National Rally), Germany (AfD), and Italy, where Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy are currently in power.
Undoubtedly, their rise is fuelled by various factors. In many cases, it is the frustration with migration and asylum policies (such as in the case of the Netherlands), internal and external security, economic insecurity (housing shortages, inflation, unemployment, which are also said to be fuelled by migrants), and a broader loss of trust in EU institutions and the weakening of the EU’s legitimacy. The Eurosceptic populists use these concerns to present themselves as defenders of the “ordinary people”, in contrast to “distant Brussels elites”. Furthermore, the European Union is also depicted as a threat to sovereignty and everything national (identity, traditions, culture, values, etc.).
The founding states are crucial in this case because their shift toward Euroscepticism and populism challenges the very foundations of European integration and raises questions about the EU’s future.
Upcoming 2025 Dutch Elections
The upcoming 2025 Dutch Elections, happening on 29th October, pose a crucial question: will the PVV win most of the seats in the Dutch Tweede Kamer again? After the win in the 2023 Dutch Elections, PVV had to create a coalition with other Dutch parties, with Dick Schoof as the new prime minister. The Schoof cabinet lasted a year and fell after the PVV left the coalition in early June due to the other parties’ refusal to impose stricter asylum policies.
New elections are expected this October, though the outcome remains uncertain, particularly regarding how many seats the PVV will win and whether the results will mirror those of 2023. According to the Netherlands Poll of Polls (POLITICO), the PVV continues to lead in most surveys, despite a slight decline compared to its results in the 2023 elections. What’s more, some of the Dutch sources, such as NOS, suggest around 29 to 35 seats for PVV, which is slightly less than in 2023 (37 seats).
Nonetheless, the campaign still focuses on immigration and the PVV’s anti-EU rhetoric, as evidenced by its programme called “Dit is uw land” (“This is your land”). Moreover, as Geert Wilders said, “I intend to become the next prime minister. I am going to make the PVV bigger than ever.“
What does it mean for the EU?
It can be argued that the rise of populism and Euroscepticism represents not only a contemporary crisis but also a turning point for the European Union, as it expands across numerous European Member States, with the Netherlands as an example.
The Dutch case may also be seen as a test for the EU’s ability to accommodate the growing internal diversity of views, fears, and concerns, which the populists use daily for their own benefit. Moreover, this turning point has also significant implications: it can prompt calls for greater national autonomy, reduced EU budget contributions, undermine trust in the Union, and even lead some countries to question or abandon their membership.The EU’s response will likely shape Member States’ approach to the Union for years to come. Currently, we can see debates in the EU focusing on addressing these challenges, with the crucial European Commission striving to “stand fair and firm on migration.” With the upcoming 2025 Dutch elections, the question remains: will the populists and Eurosceptics win again, or will the EU succeed in tackling the issues that fuel the populist rhetoric?
About the author
Joanna Tobjasz is an International Relations master’s degree student at Jagiellonian University in Kraków. She has broadened her academic experience through the Utrecht University summer school, “Dutch Culture: Society and Current Issues”, and further explored the Netherlands’ politics for her bachelor’s thesis on the Netherlands and the European Union. Her research also focuses on diplomacy, the European External Action Service, and the EU’s sustainability, environmental, and migration policies.
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