Make-or-Break Elections in 2024: What to Expect?

By Iveri Kekenadze Gustafsson

Introduction

Free and fair elections are essential to well-functioning liberal democracies and contribute to a healthy political climate. 2024 is the election year on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean. While there are several important elections to follow, three big ones in the Western world are worth taking a closer look at: the United States (US) presidential election, the European Parliament, and the United Kingdom (UK) general elections. 2024 could be a make-or-break year, considering the drastically polarised ideological environment and these elections’ stakes. This blog article reviews the current state of European and US elections and what effect their results might have on the world’s major issues.

Background

Like-minded leaders in Europe and the US have long driven aligned foreign policy. Close cooperation between the Western allies has often succeeded: may it be Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher’s “special relationship” and their role in ending the Cold War, Bill Clinton and Tony Blair’s efforts to bring peace to Northern Ireland by concluding the Good Friday Agreement or Barack Obama and Angela Merkel’s close partnership in tackling multiple crises. There have been similar trends, too; the rise of populism was marked by the impressive popularity of the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) in the early to mid-2010s in the UK and by the emboldened Tea Party in the US, followed by Brexit and the election of Donald Trump in 2016. Over the last decade, continental Europe has also seen an increase in anti-establishment, far-right parties and movements.

The US Elections

The US voters will elect the President, House of Representatives and one-third of Senators in 50 separate state elections in November 2024, and the primaries are held before two major parties nominate their candidates. Given that the current President Joe Biden is running for reelection, and no one seems to contest his candidacy within the Democratic Party, all odds are that the incumbent will be the Democratic nominee. Republicans are in primaries mode, in full swing. While half a dozen Republicans are betting their chances to become their party’s nominee, all the polls suggest that twice-impeached and multiple times-indicted former President Donald Trump maintains the momentum to seek reelection as a Grand Old Party (GOP) presidential candidate. Biden and Trump’s rematch will be significant, inter alia, due to their differences on a variety of policy items, including Transatlantic relations and Ukraine.

The European Parliament Election

The significance of European Parliament elections has grown since they were held directly for the first time in 1979. 705 Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) will be assembled from twenty-seven European Union (EU) member state elections during June 6-9, 2024. This will mark the first directly-held European Parliament elections without the UK. The right-wing and far-right parties are expected to gain seats: the popularity of Marine Le Pen’s party in France has increased since passing the controversial Migration Law, and the Alternative for Germany party, AfD, has also seen a stable rise in polls. Despite being unable to form the government, Law and Justice (PiS) party remains the biggest in Poland; at the same time, Georgia Meloni’s right-wing coalition in Italy also seems to maintain its hold on voters. Anti-Muslim Geert Wilders’ surprising victory in the Netherlands suggests that more Eurosceptic Dutch MEPs might be elected in 2024; simultaneously, the fast-increasing popularity of anti-migration Sweden Democrats will impact the distribution of Swedish MEPs. The next European Parliament will arguably be more right-wing and more eurosceptic, and depending on who is in the White House, 2024 will define the future relations between the US and the EU.

The UK General Election

Current UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has yet to set the general election date that needs to be held before 28 January 2025. This will conclude a parliament that oversaw three prime ministers, one of which was the shortest-serving ever. Polls show that the Conservatives’ outright majority will shrink significantly, and the Tories might perform even worse than during Tony Blair’s landslide victory in 1997. Despite the Conservatives’ surprising reshuffle, the Labour Party seems to be on the way to winning its first general election after four consecutive losses. Despite differences on internal matters, Labour leader Keir Starmer’s vision for British foreign policy does not seem to be much different from Sunak’s: the Labour will continue to support Ukraine staunchly, maintain solid transatlantic ties and make up for soured UK-EU relations over Brexit.

What to Expect

The outcome of the 2024 US and European elections will considerably impact the future of the war in Ukraine, the commitment to the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) and the enlargement of the EU. While the funding for Ukraine’s war efforts has already been a disagreeing issue both in Europe and the US, Donald Trump in the White House and stronger far-right forces in the EU Parliament will not settle the debate. Quite the contrary, Trump-supporting Republicans who have lately taken over the party’s leadership positions have often disclosed their sympathy for more isolationist policies. The fact that the US Congress has just passed the bill that bars future US presidents from unilateral NATO withdrawal indicates that there is far too little confidence in the commitment to the defence alliance.

Even though a prospective Labour government will seek closer relations with the EU, the UK will not join the EU anytime soon. However, there might be further steps towards EU enlargement to the East and Western Balkans. Despite the European Parliament’s relatively modest role in the EU’s enlargement, the outcome of the 2024 election will shake up the speed at which the EU develops this lengthy and merit-based process.

Looking Ahead

There are elections in different parts of the world every year, but not every year is as significant as 2024. The US, EU and the UK are holding elections that could redefine the future of Western democracies and transatlantic relations. Even if pro-European parties, with a smaller margin, nevertheless manage to hold the majority in the European Parliament, will the traditional configuration of the grand coalition at the European Parliament be replaced by something more right-wing? What will the consequences of such change be? Who will get the keys to the White House, considering that a possible Biden-Trump rematch indicates a tight race between the two? For the time being, the commitment towards NATO, EU enlargement, and to fund Ukraine’s war efforts remains in jeopardy. 

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Iveri Kekenadze Gustafsson (He/Him) obtained his MA in European Studies from Lund University. He holds a BA in International Relations from Tbilisi State University and another BA degree in Performance Studies (Classical Piano) from Tbilisi State Conservatoire. His research interests include internationalisation, leadership and organisation of Higher Education, European integration, and identities and governance in the EU’s eastern neighbourhood.