By Lorenzo Trasca
Introduction
The discourse on European migration policy has historically stirred vigorous and often inconclusive discussions between Member States and within European institutions. However, Brussels has witnessed substantial developments in the field of EU migration containment in recent months, putting the issue back at the top of the European agenda. Consequently, a glimmer of hope has emerged: the possibility of reforming the Dublin Pact, which has remained at an impasse for almost a decade.
In 2022, the co-legislators embarked on a roadmap to revamp the migration pact before the conclusion of the 2019-2024 legislative period, setting the ambitious target of finalising negotiations by February 2024. Although this technical timeline remains intact, we must ask: is substantive change feasible in the short term, or will it be a mere fleeting aspiration? This blog undertakes an analytical exploration and seeks to elucidate the grounds for optimism surrounding asylum policy reform before the end of the current legislative period.
A Reform Against the Disintegration of Unity
First, an alarming surge in grievances and individual actions to curb migrant arrivals within the EU is provoking concerns about the bloc’s unity, which only a reform of the Dublin pact will calm. Italy has emerged as a vocal proponent of stricter measures due to the overwhelming influx of migrants to its southern coast, notably the island of Lampedusa. The far-right Italian premier, Giorgia Meloni, has repeatedly called for a naval blockade of North Africa to combat human trafficking and firmly declared that Italy will not become Europe’s refugee camp. In response, Ursula von der Leyen visited Lampedusa in September and presented a comprehensive 10-point plan. Despite the plan’s extensive focus on bolstering asylum claim procedures, enhancing border control, and expediting repatriations, it failed to appease the Italian Prime Minister’s concerns.
The Schengen pact felt the initial tremors of discord within the European Union. As a significant wave of arrivals swept in, some Member States suddenly resurrected internal border checks. They invoked clauses within the Schengen Agreement allowing the temporary reinforcement of border controls in the face of critical national security threats. Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s recent remarks highlighted the gravity of the situation, with Germany struggling to manage an overwhelming influx of individuals. In response, Germany implemented brief but intensified border checks along its frontiers with Poland, the Czech Republic, and Switzerland, seeking to stem the tide of asylum seekers. Not stopping there, these nations – Germany, Poland, and the Czech Republic – joined forces to launch collaborative border patrols directed by Europol’s EMPACT program. In a similar vein, Italy also temporarily reinstated border controls with Slovenia.
The Commission’s Commitment and the New Agreement in the Council of the EU
Second, European institutions have a growing consensus that asylum policy reform is imperative. Ursula von der Leyen, the head of the European Commission, has repeatedly emphasised that “Migration is a European challenge that requires a European response”. She coordinated the proposal for reforming the EU asylum pacts in 2020 and remains a staunch advocate for the cause. Von der Leyen is determined to resolve the migration problem within her mandate, recognising that this would significantly enhance her prospects for re-election.
Apart from pushing for asylum reform, the Commission actively seeks additional funds from Member States to strengthen European borders and establish agreements with third countries to mitigate migration flows. Recent efforts have resulted in an EU-Tunisia economic deal, for instance, with potential agreements with Egypt on the horizon.
Furthermore, another EU institution, specifically the Council of the EU, has made noteworthy headway. Spanish Interior Minister, Fernando Grande-Marlaska, heralded the breakthrough on the 4th of October, declaring: “With this groundbreaking agreement, we are now better positioned to secure a comprehensive agreement on the entire asylum and migration pact with the European Parliament before this semester concludes”. A culmination of meticulous groundwork within COREPER, the Council has unveiled a cohesive agreement which imposes a maximum of four weeks (from submission) to register international protection applications and forecasts a new solidarity mechanism. This agreement will be contingent upon Council authorisation and invoked at the request of a Member State facing a crisis. Consequently, this mechanism will empower a crisis-ridden state to requisition support from fellow member countries by relocating asylum seekers and examining their claims for international protection or through financial contributions.
Cracks in the Anti-Reform Front
Third, a shift is likely in the front of countries opposing reform. While opposition to reform exists among some European countries, Hungary and Poland have been particularly vocal in their resistance. Their public objections, including blocking a joint declaration on migration policy after the European Council meeting on the 4th of October, have raised concerns. While consensus is not a prerequisite for overhauling asylum policies, the Hungarian Prime Minister insisted that decisions should be made by consensus and expressed feeling “legally raped”. Though more restrained in language, Polish Prime Minister Morawiecki expressed solidarity with Orban on social media.
However, the political landscape of the opposition is expected to evolve, particularly in Poland, where elections could usher in a more EU-friendly government led by the Civic Coalition of Donald Tusk, the former European Council president. While the organisation of the next Polish executive remains unpredictable, it is already apparent that Morawiecki will likely not be part of it. Moreover, the referendum held alongside the elections, including a question on anti-EU migration policy, did not secure the necessary votes for legal binding.
Conclusions
Despite recent global events shifting the spotlight away from European asylum policy reform, there remains room for optimism. Escalating concerns, substantial progress in EU Council discussions, and potential shifts in the political landscape of opposition countries together create a conducive environment for reform. While challenges persist, the urgent need for a comprehensive European response to the migration issue remains a unifying force, offering hope that the impasse of the Dublin Pact may finally be overcome before the end of this legislative period.
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Lorenzo holds a Master’s in International Relations from LUISS Guido Carli in Rome. He aims to pursue a career as an Italian diplomat, driven by a fervent dedication to representing Italy’s global interests. He is passionate about foreign languages and speaks Italian, English, and French.
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